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Moody's Expects Continuing Home Price Decline

Moody’s Expects Continuing Home Price Decline

Moody’s Investors Service predicts another 8% decline in the housing market in many areas over the coming months.  They blame the anemic Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) for failing to put a damper on foreclosure and the continuing escalation of foreclosure sales throughout the country for the continuing slide in home prices.
 
The national home price drop from peak to trough is expected to be 34%. The one bit of good news is Moody’s revised downward the expected total value decline.  Previously Moody’s had predicted a 37% total decline.  The bad news is, instead of the trough being reached in the 3rd quarter of this year, Moody’s now does not expect to see the leveling out to impact the market nationally until the end of the 4th quarter 2010.
 
Moody’s analysis shows that only 400,000 to 1 million homes might be saved through HAMP.  The rest of the job of cleaning up the housing market will be left to the slow process of foreclosure, deed-in-lieu of foreclosure agreements and, of course, short sales.
 
Moody’s Predictions on Short Sales
 
Moody's Economy.com predicts that the number of deed-in-lieu of foreclosures plus short sales this calendar year will increase by more than 50% to almost 500,000.  This is still only a fraction of what is needed to save more than 1.9 million homes from foreclosure.
 
Moody’s sites the decisions by many lenders to loosen rules as an indication Lenders are now more willing to find solutions short of foreclosure.  Some of the recent changes by Lenders include:
 
·      CitiMortgage decision to allow beleaguered homeowners to remain in the home without paying if homeowners will sign over the home and take care of it.
·      Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs to allow Homeowners to remain in the home as renters while the disposition of the house is being sorted out.
·      Treasury Department’s recent decision to pay Lenders $1000 when they agree to a Short Sale and to forgiving the remaining debt.
 
While we believe there are flaws in the government’s Short Sale program, there is no question that this new willingness to look at selling a home for less than the mortgage amount is certainly going to increase the numbers of Short Sales that are approved this year.  There has never been a better time to be a Short Sale Investor!
 
First American CoreLogic HPI Says Price Decline is Slowing
 
First American CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) tracks home prices in all U.S. markets and basically concurs with Moody’s report that home prices are continuing to fall when considered nationally. The one silver lining the HPI reveals is that the decline is smaller and slower than before.
 
The December decline year over year was 3.7% compared to the 5.3% year over year decline the previous December.  Even when distress sales are removed both years registered a decline in home values year over year—3% in December 2009 and 5% in December 2008.
 
The HPI is expected to drop another 4.4% through spring 2010.  Then it is a matter of whether the latest homebuyer credit is extended beyond April as to whether the remainder of 2010 will show a faster decline, or begins to stabilize.  At the present time First American CoreLogic predicts a rosier home value prospect than Moody’s.  It believes home values will be up 3.5% by December 2010, or 2.7% when distressed sales are removed from the calculation.
 
Homeowners More Pessimistic About Home Value
 
Zillow has completed a survey which shows for the first time that Homeowners are no longer confident that their homes are going up in value.  Only 20% believed their home had gone up in value, where, in fact Zillow shows about 28% of homes appreciated in the past year.  For the first time since Zillow started surveying homeowner confidence, the level as a -2 showing that homeowners are actually more cynical than reality about the value of their homes.
 
Half of the surveyed home owners believed their homes had fallen in value, while 30% believed their home had stayed the same in value.  According to Zillow, actually 65% of homes lost value while only 7% stayed the same.
 
In the past homeowners found it easier to believe that their neighbor’s home was falling in value than to believe the same about their own house.  Now more homeowners understand that home value decline is the rule rather than the exception.
 
What this means for Short Sale Investors is that it may become a little easier to convince homeowners that a Short Sale is needed in order to sell the home, and their Agent may well be easier to convince as well.  You will have solid market sales data behind you to justify your offer, and more and more, homeowners are accepting that reality.
 
Have a great evening!
 
Tim Cook
 
 
 
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How to Network with Seasoned Investors Without Scaring Them Away (And How I Did It All Wrong)

By: Bill Guerra 

This article is for the new real estate investor who is trying to network and get to know seasoned investors. It's for anyone who's looking for an investor with some experience and success to "mentor" them.

What is a Seasoned Investor?

Quite simply, a seasoned investor would be someone who has bought and sold, repaired or rehabbed or wholesaled several houses - one who pretty well knows the ins and outs of real estate investing. This is just the type of person many new investors are looking to learn from.

Just the type of person you want to learn from, right?

So, you want to find someone you can wholesale deals too?  Someone who will show you the gold mine areas for houses, allow you Multiple Listing Access (MLS), and give you the security of knowing they can close and pay you on your house or flip it in 5 business days? Maybe you want to take the seasoned investor out to lunch-heck, you'll go so far as to buy lunch!

What's Standing in the Way?

Well, most seasoned investors are great to know, and together you can make a lot of money. However, these investors often elude the new investor. Is it that you are intimidated by their vast knowledge and experience, or maybe they are initially just too busy to catch up with? Whatever the reason, a seasoned investor is great to get to know, but one important thing to understand is that this kind of relationship can't just "happen" overnight.

First, it's a given that seasoned investors tend to be pretty busy people. They run usually a small business, where they are busy managing, advertising, and bookkeeping - or managing those that do. Outside the office, they are driving around all day looking at properties, running crews, dashing to Sam's club buying new printers and problem solving with staff, realtors, and their title company. This, of course, is in between trips to Home Depot or Lowe's where they scour the isles looking for that one elusive item.

During all this, there are rehab crews waiting and the seasoned investor is constantly feeling pressure, pressure and more pressure as the cost of labor is expensive, especially when the crew waits around!

What I have found in the Las Vegas area is that most seasoned investors are around 30 or more years old, with families. Therefore, they are busy with family life as well, such as taking kids to practice and trying to have a social or spiritual life with family and friends. Just maybe at the end of the week, they can carve out some oh-so-precious time all to themselves.

So yes, they are busy. Very busy.

How I Tried to Find A Seasoned Mentor (and Failed)

When I began, I simply assumed that a seasoned investor would spend time with me as they realized I would bring them great deals, and because I was serious about this business.

It seemed like a fair trade to me-their time and expertise for my house deals and soon-to-be house deals and endless (but sincere) questions. And if I'd offer to meet them for lunch, and actually PAY for it, well then the sky's the limit, baby!

I mean, who could turn that down?

Well, my dream was to have many house deals, but it was only a dream at that time. And one thing I didn't really understand was that these types of people often have lots of wide-eyes tenderfoots, just like me, calling and emailing them for their time on a regular basis.  And even the most generous of people must begin to say "no" to the "good" for the sake of what's "best".

"Why Are They Avoiding Me?"

As time went on and I tried again and again to pursue these kinds of relationships, slowly I began to get it.  The reality of the seasoned investors' world, and the natural time constraints included, became more and more apparent.

And as I began to do more and more deals, an interesting thing started happening.  I actually started having new investors who started calling me, wanting to take me to lunch!  Can you believe it????

So what did I do? I gave graciously of my time, for I was surely not going to selfishly limit myself same way that some of the old-timers did to me when I was new. I was going to give of my time and expertise freely. Humpfh!

I would tell each new investor, "I will help you along, and then you can offer me your house deals first over other investors." And they, of course, readily agreed.

So as the new investors would call, we would "talk shop", and I'd answer their many questions, answer their emails, and even run comparables (comps) for them on their prospective deals. If needed, I would even stop what I was doing and perform skip traces to find their missing sellers (Deb is great, she can find a needle in a haystack nationwide.)

Sometimes I would take them to my best areas and subdivisions where I found deals-my gold mine areas. Other times, we would get lunch and I would listen and encourage them in their hopes, challenges and dreams.

Yes, we were off to the races!  Until...

The Other Side of the Coin

I started noticing a disturbing trend.  I started getting calls from my "apprentices" notifying me that they were fed up with this real estate investing thing, couldn't make it work, and were ready to throw in the towel.

At first it was only a few of them.  Then a few more.  And eventually it seemed that about 95% of them were suddenly on their way out the door. Some said they were going back to collage, while others were getting a nine to five job and so on.

It was then that reality hit me.  I began to realize that most of the newbies had stars in their eyes, and wanted to get rich quick, or were looking for an easy out from college. The older ones often had too many battle scars and couldn't seem to get up again, due to some past experience. It's tough to say, but true to form.

So where did that leave me...the now-seasoned investor?

Honestly? Frustrated, let down and occasionally angry. And yes, burnt out with newbies.  After all, I'd graciously invested hours and hours of my time, not to mention a good deal of mental energy and focus, into helping these folks take steps toward the real estate investing dream they'd seemed so passionate about before.  And now it was all for naught.

Then I would read in the real estate forums, "How do I find seasoned investors to work with?" - And often spoken with almost an air of entitlement.

Now I Get It.

Now it all makes sense.  Now I really and truly understand why I had such a hard time getting on the "inside" with these guys, and why so many others do as well.  And that, my friend, is why I wrote this article for new investors like you.

There's no doubt at all that the seasoned investor has a LOT to offer the budding newbie.  They have great real estate software, MLS access, cash, and experience. They offer great resources, knowledge, have title companies and realtors in their back pockets, and know the other seasoned investors. They possess all the tools of the trade that anyone new desires.

Furthermore I can say without hesitation the seasoned investors DO want new investors to bring them good wholesale or birddog deals. Believe it or not, they are looking to make new investor friends.

So what do you do to ally with these guys? How do you get "on the inside" with them.

How To Get A Seasoned Real Estate Mentor...

First, do your homework and don't be lazy about it. Study and learn the areas, types of houses, cost of houses you will make offers on, and basic costs of repairing the rehabs.

Then drive for dollars find a house. Driving for dollars means driving around a subdivision looking for abandoned or boarded-up houses and locating the owner. Do your work or research on the house.

Invest some of your own time, effort, blood and sweat on the front end, to prove that you're not just looking for a free ride or a cow to milk.  And by this point, you should be able to talk to a seasoned investor and compare apples and apples with the experienced investor.

Know enough in advance to be able to determine fairly well if there is even money in the house before you call him.

See who owns the property and find out if it's possibly a motivated seller. Or is it owned by a realtor, county owned or does another investor own it?  If it's the latter, you may decide not to waste your seasoned investor or your time going after it.

Next, continue to do your homework and attempt to contact of find the owner/seller.
Now, when you call the salty investor, try saying something like this;

"Iggy Investor, I have a 3 bed 2 bath boarded up 1500sf single family. Cross streets are Jones and Bethany. Owed is $30k, comps at $170k. I have done research and can't find the sellers. Want to grab a cup of coffee and see if we can get it?"

Now, doesn't that sound better than the old "let's us grab some lunch, so I can pick your brain." approach?   Honestly I cringe when I get that line from a new investor I just met.

Why doesn't that work? It's simply because it's a one-sided relationship, all give on the investor's part and nothing from the new investor except his or her dreams of what they may or may not do.

You need to start by GIVING, well before you even try to receive anything.  You need to ask yourself,

"What can I do to EARN this relationship, and all the powerful benefits that could come along with it?"

Don't Focus On The Money

Notice in the hypothetical conversation above, I did not mention wholesale or birddog. One thing a seasoned investor taught me a long time ago was to forget about me making money. That's right! Get my mind off my pockets initially and see if I could birddog, not even do wholesale, but just birddog. When I would "dog some properties" to show my willingness to help make him money, they would take more time with me.

Trust me. The first 15 houses I bugged my seasoned investors with were definitely not deals. And by "bugged," I mean that took precious time out of their day to look at my no-deal houses. Of course, the next hundred or so were definitely worth their time, but initially it was more like wild goose-chasing on there part for months.

I hope this makes sense and that I've been able to help you look at this "mentor" relationship from flip side of the coin. If so, then you will have a much better chance of making a new strong profitable relationship with seasoned investors.

Don't be afraid of these relationships.  They're well worth pursuing, and can really take you to the next level when they happen.  But don't start off feeling like you somehow deserve them.  You don't.  The only thing you're really entitled to is the same school of hard knocks we all have to learn from.

But if you can earn the respect of a seasoned investor or two - by truly adding value to their business FIRST - then you'll likely find some delightful short cuts to your learning curve as an investor.

If you are a "serious" new investor and would like to work with seasoned investors please send us an email an info@allwholesaleproperties.com and tell us how we can help you.  We will get back to you as soon as possible.  

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HUD LIFTS THE 90 DAY SEASONING REQUIREMENT TO SPEED RESALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES TO NEW OWNERS

HUD No. 10-011
Lemar Wooley
(202) 708-0685
FOR RELEASE
Friday
January 15, 2010
HUD TAKES ACTION TO SPEED RESALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES TO NEW OWNERS
Measure to help bring stability to home values and accelerate sale of vacant properties

WASHINGTON - In an effort to stabilize home values and improve conditions in communities where foreclosure activity is high, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced a temporary policy that will expand access to FHA mortgage insurance and allow for the quick resale of foreclosed properties. The announcement is part of the Obama administration commitment to addressing foreclosure. Just yesterday, Secretary Donovan announced $2 billion in Neighborhood Stabilization Program grants to local communities and nonprofit housing developers to combat the effects of vacant and abandoned homes.

"As a result of the tightened credit market, FHA-insured mortgage financing is often the only means of financing available to potential homebuyers," said Donovan. "FHA has an unprecedented opportunity to fulfill its mission by helping many homebuyers find affordable housing while contributing to neighborhood stabilization."

With certain exceptions, FHA currently prohibits insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days. This temporary waiver will give FHA borrowers access to a broader array of recently foreclosed properties.

"This change in policy is temporary and will have very strict conditions and guidelines to assure that predatory practices are not allowed," Donovan said.

In today's market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.

The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.

"FHA borrowers, because of the restrictions we are now lifting, have often been shut out from buying affordable properties," said FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens. "This action will enable our borrowers, especially first-time buyers, to take advantage of this opportunity."

The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of "flipping" where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:

  • All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
  • In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller's acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions.
  • The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.

Specific conditions and other details of this new temporary policy are in the text of the waiver, available on HUD's website.

For further information contact Tim at tim@AllWholesaleProperties.com or visit us at www.AllWholesaleProperties.com .

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Flipping Gets More Validation

The stories keep coming in and time after time flipping property is being legitimized.  I guess after a rash of blaming flipping for everything, including causing the foreclosure crisis, people are realizing that their convenient scapegoat is actually a valuable good that needs to be done to alleviate the housing market of the flood of foreclosures and vacant houses poisoning our neighborhoods.
 
A recent Wall Street Journal article on the new trends in house flipping demonstrates that this form of real estate investment is now “in.”  The specific type of wholesale flipping discussed in the article is buying homes at auction for cash and turning them around to an end buyer, sometimes after completing some rehab.
 
The article points out the risks of this type of investment flipping, and these are essentially the reasons why this is not the approach we recommend to our students unless they are very experienced and know the area well.  It is easy in the heat of bidding to lose track of what constitutes a safe buying range and to buy too high, especially since in many markets Investors are flocking to auctions and making the most attractive deals highly competitive.  Sheriffs and Trustees are not equipped to show the properties about to go to auction, so often the only gauge of condition for an auction property is to drive by the outside and guesstimate repairs.  Investors must leave a very generous contingency for rehab in any bid made or face being stuck with a big loss.  Liens may also not have all been cleared before the sale leaving the Investor to negotiate or pay taxes, the previous owner’s student loans or other lien surprises.  Investors will h ave only three or four weeks to research the properties of interest and determine these pitfalls before the auction date from the time the sale is first announced.
 
In the mid-decade boom years hard money was more plentiful for Investors who wanted to participate in Sheriff and Trustee sales.  It is still possible to find a cash partner, but interest rates will be high because of the risks involved in actually taking possession of a property and being responsible in many cases for extensive rehabs before resale.  For those using their own money it ties up a substantial amount of capital that is then not available to leverage multiple deals.  It is true that in the past Lenders were much more likely to set the sale price at what remained on the mortgage, and now they are recognizing that distressed property must be discounted, even at auction, if it is going to sell that way. There are many more excellent deals at auctions these days than in the past.
 
It is interesting that the WSJ chose to focus on flipping property sold at auction.  No doubt, this is the model that most Investors follow when they get into the business of wholesaling, because buying auction and bank owned properties are what are advertised most heavily.  The secret to Investing that we teach with The Agent Magnet is that the safest and most cost-effective form of property flipping comes from being in the loop with Real Estate Agents who are working with over-leveraged properties before they go into foreclosure.  These properties have generally been looked after better and have suffered less damage.  They have experienced and attentive Agents there to liaison with the Seller, gather the Short Sale package documentation and to help find an end Buyer once the Lender has given its approval for a Short Sale. The disclosures included in the Purchase and Sale Agreement and its addendums make it clear to all parties that the Investor is g oing to resell immediately often with transactional funding.  We know that a growing number of Lenders and Title companies are becoming familiar with this form of flipping and are approving more and more deals using this model.
 
In fact, as we’ve pointed out in other recent posts, many top Lenders and Mortgage Underwriters are have come out explicitly with guidelines that prove legitimate flipping is here to stay as a helpful part of the Short Sale process.  Here are some documents to use in pointing out to Agents you approach that Short Sale flipping using the system we use at The Agent Magnet is an accepted practice:
 
  • Freddie Mac ‘s “Best Practices for Loans Involving Possible Property Flips” was issued October 9, 2009 to its servicers and explicitly states that resales after a distress sale as a result of a Short Sale, bankruptcy, tax lien sale or bank-ownership are legitimate as long as they are arm’s length transactions with full disclosure to all involved parties about the nature of the sale. Appraisals must also be arms’ length and not involve properties that have been artificially inflated in value. As long as transactional funding, intent to resell, and other disclosure requirements are met and there is no attempt to defraud the end Buyer with an overly inflated price, Freddie Mac will look at backing the deal.
  • Attorney’s Title Fund Service in a September 4, 2009 bulletin to its underwriters and agents indicated that Short Sales with an intermediary would be insured provided there is full disclosure about the nature of the sale and all disbursements are made exactly as they are stated on the HUD-1.  The intermediary’s “right to sell for a profit” must be clearly stated.
  • As we mentioned a week ago Wells Fargo just sent the bulletin to its officers that “due to current market conditions having a large volume of distressed properties, the existing policy of not allowing financing for flipped properties has been revised. Legitimate property flipping transactions are now eligible to be financed by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage…” The requirements for validating a legitimate flip are all within the range of practice that we recommend to our Investors and their Agents.
The good news for 2010 is that the work that we do as Short Sale Investors is getting recognized as a valuable part of the process that actually saves time and makes the Short Sale more likely to close successfully.  Short Sales were up 127% year over year in 2009 and are expected to continue to climb in 2010.  Happy New Year indeed!
 
Best regards,

Tim
www.AllWholesaleProperties.com
www.Texas-AgentsAdvantage.com

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Flipping houses in a Tough Economy

Flipping houses in a Tough Economy CNNMoney recently ran an article about how small businesses can survive in a slumping economy. If you are interested in flipping houses and are worried about the current shaky market, the advice offered is certainly something you will want to take to heart: 1.Increase marketing efforts. Small business owners who were around during the shaky economy of 2001 saw competitors go bankrupt when they cut back on advertising. A bad economy or tough market is no time to sit back on your heels – you need to go after new business aggressively, because customers are what will see you through the tough times. 2.Target a broad client base. Going after low-end customers will see you embroiled by price wars and defections. Even during a bad economy, there is a segment of the wealthy population that can afford to spend – and spend big. If you want to survive a tough market, make sure that you target at least part of your efforts towards this market. Just don’t put all your eggs in the same market. Higher-end customers are less affected by a tough economy and will continue to buy after everyone else has stopped. Commercial buyers may also continue to need your services and properties even after residential buyers scale back. 3.Look to where there is opportunity. During the 2001 recession, technology and travel industries were hit hard while in this coming recession it looks as though real estate will be the target. If you are a real estate investor, this can be a tough pill to swallow, but don’t bother bemoaning the fates. Instead, focus on what the recession can bring you -- inexpensive credit, slashed-price equipment and property, and a chance to hire great employees that have been let go by their current employers. The smart investor can parlay these advantages into an empire. 4.During the recession, switch tactics. Recessions always end, but while you are in one, make sure that you understand what you are doing – especially if you are taking part in something risky like flipping houses. During a recession, larger companies offload their marginally profitable customers and aggressively pursue higher-end customers. This means that if you are a smaller business, you can get these marginally profitable customers if you strategize. 5.Focus on the customer. In boom times when everyone has money to burn on a new home you may not have to do much to resell a property you have renovated. The fact that the home is an attractive price, a good look and in a good area is usually enough to move it quickly – and if the market is good enough you don’t even need these three things to sell fast. In a tougher economy, though, you can’t just be thinking of your bottom line. You need to be thinking about your customer and their needs. Who are the home buyers in this economy? What are they looking for? What do they need? What are they having a hard time finding? Talk to and really listen to your customers and do your own research. Change your tactics based on what you learn and you will find new customers while your competition can’t make ends meet. 6.Realize that holding steady in a bad economy may be as good as huge growth in a bad economy. Especially in current conditions, when real estate investors will be hit hardest, holding onto what you have without losses may be the best way to ride out the tough times. 7.Do what other businesses won’t. Some investors are already finding that traditional lenders are running scared and even buyers who can make payments are often turned down for home loans. Being able to offer owner financing provides you with another service to offer and allows you to really help customers – and customers reward that kind of service with their dollar. 8.Diversify. Smart investors think on their feet. If their profits in flipping houses drop, they look for other ways to make money. They rent some homes, lease others to businesses, offer owner financing on others and generally look for a few ways to make money. This helps ensure that even if one side of their business sustains a hit during tough times, there is enough money coming in to keep their company afloat until new opportunities come knocking.

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